The 2026 New York Yankees enter spring training with a roster built around veteran star power, a few new acquisitions, and a large cluster of pitchers and role players competing for limited spots.
Unlike past seasons, the battles are less about stars and more about marginal gains such as the final outfielder, the last rotation spot, and the final two bullpen arms. These decisions will likely be driven by underlying metrics rather than traditional statistics.
This 4-part series breaks down each competition using FanGraphs and Baseball Savant data.
The anchors: Judge + Bellinger
Aaron Judge is the easiest roster call in all of baseball, and the Statcast profile is still absurd. In 2025, Judge posted:
- 95.4 mph average exit velocity
- 58.2% hard-hit rate
- 24.7% barrel rate
- .463 wOBA / .460 xwOBA
That’s MVP-level underlying contact quality, period.
Cody Bellinger brings lineup balance and defensive flexibility. FanGraphs credited him with a 125 wRC+ and 4.9 WAR in 2025, exactly the kind of two-way production that earned him a massive payday this offseason.
Those two aren’t just starters. They’re lineup anchors.
The wild swing: Trent Grisham’s bat changed the math
If you’re looking for the storyline that quietly reshaped this race, it’s Trent Grisham’s 2025:
- 34 HR
- .812 OPS
Even if you don’t buy the full breakout, that kind of power forces him into the conversation as more than a defense-only fourth outfielder. Defensively, Statcast still views him as a capable center fielder, with near-neutral OAA in 2025. That matters on a roster where Judge and Bellinger will see time in the corners and DH. Grisham’s newfound power paired with competent center-field defense gives the Yankees a legitimate everyday alignment option.
The tension: Domínguez and Jones need everyday reps
Jasson Domínguez’s 2025 Statcast contact quality was solid but not star-level:
- 90.6 mph avg EV
- 49.6% hard-hit rate
- 7.0% barrel rate
- .316 wOBA / .306 xwOBA
- ~103 wRC+
That’s playable offense, but not enough to offset the defensive concerns. Statcast charged him with -9 Outs Above Average, a number that becomes difficult to carry on a contender built around run prevention.
Spencer Jones presents the opposite profile: massive upside, but clear developmental needs. His strikeout rates in the upper minors remained elevated, and while the power/speed combination is real, the hit tool still needs refinement against advanced pitching.
For both Domínguez and Jones, the question isn’t talent. It’s opportunity. And neither benefits from being a part-time fourth outfielder.
The verdict: TBD
Health will influence the final alignment, but if the core group stays intact, the Yankees face a roster-construction dilemma.
If Judge is locked into right field, Bellinger holds down left or rotates between LF/1B/DH, Grisham provides center-field defense and power, then the fourth outfielder becomes a role-specific spot, not a developmental one.
In that scenario, the Yankees may prefer a glove-first defender, late-inning runner, or a platoon-type bat. This leads to the uncomfortable but logical conclusion: The fourth outfielder is not currently be on the 40-man roster.
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