Major League Baseball’s current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires on Dec. 1, 2026, and the looming threat of a lockout or strike is already hanging over the sport. Simply put, MLB cannot afford to hit “pause” on its season in 2027. The league is already lagging behind the NFL and NBA in key measures of financial growth and fan engagement. Halting play, even temporarily, would further erode baseball’s popularity, investor confidence, and cultural relevance at a moment when it can least afford it.
Franchise Valuations: Baseball Lags Behind
Money talks in pro sports, and lately it’s been shouting about football and basketball far more than baseball. Recent franchise valuation trends show MLB teams appreciating at a modest pace while NFL and NBA teams surge ahead. Consider the latest figures:
The average NFL franchise is valued around $7.1 billion, a 22–25% jump in just the last year. Thanks to massive media deals and unabated fan interest, NFL team valuations have doubled over the past four years. Nearly all NFL clubs rank among the world’s richest sports teams, 30 of 32 NFL teams made Forbes’ top-50 global list in 2025.
The NBA’s 30 franchises average $5.4 billion in value after a 21% one-year gain. Buoyed by rising TV revenues and worldwide popularity, no NBA team is valued below $3.6B today. The Golden State Warriors ($11B), Los Angeles Lakers ($10B), and New York Knicks ($9.75B) all sit comfortably above the $9 billion mark.
By contrast, the average MLB club is worth about $2.6 billion, up a modest 8% from 2024. Every team is now worth at least $1 billion, with the New York Yankees topping the list at $8.2B. But only two MLB teams (the Yankees and Dodgers) cracked the top 50 globally in 2025. The Los Angeles Dodgers, at $6.8B valuation, saw a healthy 25% jump after winning the World Series, yet even that ranks only around the 10th most valuable sports franchise, a tier dominated by NFL and a few NBA giants.
In short, MLB teams are appreciating far slower than their NFL and NBA counterparts. Investors have taken notice. The median NBA franchise is worth roughly $5B while the median MLB team is closer to $2B, reflecting basketball’s broader popularity and revenue potential. This valuation gap signals that the market sees stronger growth and cultural clout in other leagues. If MLB owners and players allow another labor stoppage, they risk further depressing the league’s financial momentum. Franchise values thrive on confidence in the sport’s future, a confidence that a prolonged lockout would shatter.
Youth Engagement and Popularity Trends
Declining franchise value growth isn’t a random fluke; it correlates with MLB’s battle to stay relevant with fans, especially the next generation. The NFL and NBA enjoy booming popularity among young people, from TV ratings to social media engagement, while baseball has struggled to keep pace. By many metrics, MLB’s fan base skews older and its share of youth attention has been shrinking.
Youth sports participation data paints a worrisome picture for baseball’s pipeline of future fans. From 2019 to 2024, youth baseball participation (ages 6–17) plummeted 19%, the steepest decline among major team sports. In the same period, youth basketball participation dipped only 2% and tackle football 7%, while flag football (a safer alternative) soared by 14%. In other words, fewer kids are playing baseball compared to a few years ago, and they’re increasingly gravitating to sports like football (in modified form) or basketball. Fandom often starts on the playing field; as one MLB executive noted, a child who plays baseball is far more likely to become a lifelong fan and attend games later on. A generation turning away from baseball at a young age bodes ill for MLB’s long-term popularity.
To its credit, MLB has recognized this challenge and taken steps to rejuvenate youth interest. The league’s “Play Ball” initiative and recent rule changes have shown some positive results. Casual participation in baseball (kids picking up a bat and ball informally) hit 8.9 million in 2023, more than double the level in 2014. In fact, overall baseball participation (casual plus organized) reached 16.7 million in 2023, the highest level since 2008, and youth softball participation is rising as well. MLB also enjoyed a 9.6% attendance bump in 2023 thanks in part to faster-paced games. These are encouraging signs that baseball can still attract young fans and families when the product is fun and accessible.
However, this fragile progress could be undone overnight by a labor dispute. Nothing alienates fans, especially new or casual fans, like a work stoppage. During the infamous 1994 MLB players’ strike, attendance plunged 20% the following season and did not fully recover for a decade. Millions of disgruntled baseball fans simply walked away; many turned their attention to Michael Jordan’s Bulls, the NFL, and other entertainment options. Baseball’s image suffered a lasting black eye, and it ceded cultural ground to other sports at a critical time. The lesson is clear: when MLB disappears from the field, it also disappears from fans’ minds and rival leagues are quick to fill that void.
The High Stakes of a Potential Lockout
As the 2026 deadline approaches, the stakes for MLB could not be higher. The league is already fighting perception that it’s a step behind football and basketball in the modern sports landscape. Another lockout or strike would be a self-inflicted wound, reinforcing every negative stereotype about baseball as an old-fashioned sport out of touch with today’s fan. It would stall the momentum from recent on-field improvements (faster games, exciting young stars) and undermine efforts to court young fans just as they’re starting to bear fruit.
From a business perspective, a prolonged work stoppage could flatline the franchise valuation growth that owners covet. Media partners and sponsors would grow wary, and the uncertainty could diminish the premium buyers are willing to pay for teams. Remember, MLB’s average team value rose just 8% last year, compared to 21% in the NBA and over 20% in the NFL. If games are canceled in 2027, MLB risks not only forfeiting revenue but also its relevance in the fierce competition for fans’ attention. The NFL will still have its Sundays, the NBA its primetime showcases, baseball could go dark at the worst possible time.
Culturally, MLB’s standing as America’s pastime has already been challenged by the NFL’s Super Bowl spectacle and the NBA’s global appeal. A labor dispute would further erode baseball’s share of the national conversation. It’s telling that in recent surveys, only 29% of American adults say they watch MLB, compared to 43% for the NFL. Any absence of baseball, even briefly, could push those numbers lower as fans move on to more readily available content. The league would also lose storytelling opportunities for its emerging stars, failing to capitalize on players who could capture young fans’ imagination in the way NBA and NFL stars do.
Bottom line
If MLB owners and players allow the next CBA negotiation to deteriorate into a lockout or strike, they won’t just be fighting over slices of a financial pie, they’ll be risking the very future of the sport’s relevance and prosperity. The last time baseball stopped, it took years to repair the damage and that was in 1994, when MLB still enjoyed a larger slice of the sports pie. In 2027, amid far fiercer competition, the cost of a lost season could be even steeper. Every trend, from franchise values to youth engagement indicates baseball is playing catch-up to football and basketball. A lockout would only widen that gap by squandering fan goodwill and momentum. For the sake of their sport’s future, both sides need to recognize that a labor stoppage isn’t just a negotiating tactic, it’s an existential threat to MLB’s relevance. The clock is ticking toward December 2026, and all of baseball should be united on one point: going dark is not an option.
In the end, fans don’t care about who “wins” a labor negotiation. They care about the game. MLB’s decision-makers must remember that the real competition isn’t across the bargaining table, it’s out there in the world fighting for fans’ attention. In that competition, baseball can’t afford an unforced error. A lockout or strike would be exactly that: a preventable blunder that could set America’s pastime back at a time it desperately needs to move forward. For the sake of the sport’s long-term health, let’s hope cooler heads prevail and keep the gates open for the start of a regular Spring Training in 2027.
Baseball has a chance to keep growing and captivating new generations, but only if it learns from the past. A labor stoppage now would squander momentum, drive away young would-be fans, and undercut the financial foundation of the league. Everyone in power must do everything to avoid a strike or lockout, because the cost of such a mistake would be measured not just in dollars, but in the very relevance of the game we love.
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